Headlines about declining enrollment and the subsequent financial struggles this creates in Arizona’s public schools have caught the state’s attention. However, Common Sense Institute’s (CSI) data shows this shift was inevitable, driven by dramatic demographic changes and a shift in enrollment preferences during the pandemic.
Here are the Facts on the Growth & Change in Arizona’s K-12 System:
- Demographic Decline: Arizona’s school-aged population peaked in 2021 and will shrink by 40,000 students by 2028.
- Largest Kindergarten Class is Graduating: The 2012 kindergarten cohort—the state’s largest ever—is now preparing to graduate. Future K-12 enrollment is not expected to grow in the foreseeable future.
- Historic Enrollment Drop: Public schools lost 50,000 students between 2020 and 2021, with only 18,000 transitioning to charter schools, leaving tens of thousands unaccounted for.
- Parental Enrollment Preferences: The pandemic had a major impact on parent’ enrollment decisions. Homeschooling surged from 2% of students pre-pandemic to 11% at its peak and remains above 6% today. Private school enrollment has grown by 33% since 2020.
What This Means:
Arizona’s K-12 system was designed for growth. For decades, funding formulas were increased alongside growing enrollment. Now, with fewer students, Arizona’s public school system is at a turning point. The state has already funded more than $3 billion in unused or underused district schools, and with enrollment now declining this trend will only continue.
“Arizona’s classrooms are entering a new era,” said Glenn Farley, CSI Arizona’s Director of Policy and Research. “The numbers have been clear for years: the system built for growth has reached its peak. Moving forward, policymakers must adapt to a smaller, more diverse student population and rethink how we allocate resources.”
