TUCSON — While Southeastern Arizona continues to experience moderate to severe drought conditions, some relief might be on the way.
The National Weather Service released the 2026 Arizona Monsoon Outlook on Monday, and there is a 33- to 50-percent chance of above normal precipitation over the next few months.
While the greatest chance for above-normal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season is predicted for Northern Arizona, any rain in Southeastern Arizona would be welcome after a very dry 2025.
Safford experienced just 1.63 inches of rain last year according to the NWS, compared to the normal amount of 3.68 inches (averaged from 1991-2020). Willcox received 5.63 inches of rain, compared to the normal amount of 6.6 inches, and Tucson saw 2.82 inches of rain compared to the average of 5.69 inches.
Meteorologist are tracking the formation of a “super el Nino” across the Pacific Ocean, which is increasing ocean temperatures. While that could mean above normal precipitation during the summer monsoon season, Arizona is more likely to see increased rainfall during the late fall and winter months as a result of the el Nino weather system.
– Contributed Graphic/National Weather Service
