Financial & Academic Risks of Rolling Back School Choice Programs – CSI Report

PHOENIX, Ariz. – School choice has seen rapid growth nationally since 2020, but Arizona was at the forefront of this movement. Despite the success of programs like Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs) and increasing demand from families, legislation aimed at limiting or eliminating school choice continues to be introduced annually in the state Legislature.

What would a loss of school choice look like—and how would it impact Arizona families and taxpayers? The Common Sense Institute (CSI) explores the potential impact of killing choice in its latest report by Reverend Janelle Wood, CSI’s A Choice for Every Child Fellow and Founder/CEO of the Black Mothers Forum.

The report provides a data-driven analysis of Arizona’s school choice landscape and the significant consequences of rolling back these programs.

Key Findings:

  • Half of Arizona’s Students Choose Alternative Education: Up to 49% of Arizona’s K-12 students are enrolled in charter schools, private schools, microschools, or district open enrollment programs.
  • Eliminating School Choice Would Cost Taxpayers $2.2 Billion: If all 350,000 non-District K-12 students moved back into public schools, taxpayer costs would increase by up to $2.2 billion annually under Arizona’s current K-12 funding model. This is after any savings from getting rid of ESAs or STOs.
  • Class Sizes Would Surge by 41%: District public school class sizes would jump from 17.7 students per class to 24.9 students per class if students currently using school choice programs were forced back into the public system.
  • Lower Test Scores: Ending school choice would lead to a projected 4.2% drop in reading scores and a 4.0% drop in math scores statewide.
  • Higher Graduation Rates for Choice Students: High school graduation rates for school choice students are up to an estimated 91%—compared to just 78.5% for students in traditional public schools. This translates into approximately 24,000+ more Arizona high school graduates over the next decade, due to choice options.
  • Diverse Participation: As of 2021, 18% of ESA students have special needs, 56% come from median incomes families, and 12.7% are from rural areas.
  • Impact on Underserved Communities: Shifting more ESA and school choice students back to traditional public schools also may exacerbate inequities in discipline. Five Arizona public school districts with high rates of low-income and nonwhite student populations account for 20% of all suspensions and expulsions—meanbing a loss of choice would disproportionately affect these students.

“School choice works, plain and simple,” said Rev. Janelle Wood, CSI’s A Choice for Every Child Fellow and Founder/CEO of the Black Mothers Forum. “Empowerment Scholarship Accounts have allowed families, especially those from underserved communities, to access educational opportunities that better meet their children’s needs. Rolling back these programs would not only limit options for students but also worsen academic outcomes and increase financial strain on Arizona families.” “Arizona’s school choice programs have been a game-changer for students and families across the state,” said Katie Ratlief, CSI Executive Director. Half of Arizona’s students are exercising school choice today, and the data shows that these programs are driving better educational outcomes and saving taxpayers money. Preserving these options is critical to maintaining Arizona’s leadership in educational choice and ensuring students have access to the best possible opportunities.”

Read the full report here

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