TUCSON — One day after the Arizona Primary, with slightly more than 100 days until General Election, four polls show the Democratic challenger ahead in the race to represent Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties in Congress.
According to the polls, Democrat JoAnna Mendoza is leading incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani by 1 to 3 points.
“I’m so grateful for Southern Arizona’s support for our campaign as we move onto the general election in November,” Mendoza said in a prepared statement.
Two of the polls were commissioned by the Democrats — Normington, Petts and Associates has Mendoza up 47 percent to Ciscomani’s 45 percent; and Public Policy Polling has Mendoza up 42 percent to 41 percent.
The other two polls were commissioned by the Republicans, both by Ragnar Research Partners. The first shows Mendoza up 47 percent to 44 percent, and a generic Democrat vs. Republican in the district shows the Democrat up 43 percent to 42 percent.
– David Bell Photo/Gila Valley Central
In an election night press release, the National Republican Congressional Committee said it’s confident Ciscomani will be re-elected in November.
“Arizonans will re-elect Juan Ciscomani, independently ranked Arizona’s most-effective and most-bipartisan Congressman, to continue fighting to lower costs and help families live the American Dream,” said Ben Petersen with the NRCC.
In the most recent campaign finance filing, Mendoza outraised Ciscomani in the second quarter of 2026, $2.02 million to $1.1 million, the second quarter in a row that Mendoza out fund-raised Ciscomani.
However, Ciscomani has built a larger war chest for the remaining 104 days until the General Election, with $4.14 million cash on hand compared to Mendoza’s $3.26 million.
Editor’s note: This story was updated at 3:55 p.m. Wednesday, July 22, 2026, to clarify the NRCC position.
