PHOENIX, Ariz. — The Common Sense Institute (CSI) released the first report in its 2026 Ballot Guide series, analyzing the proposed “Protect Education Act” and its potential impacts on Arizona families, school choice, and K-12 funding. The report finds the proposal would significantly restrict eligibility for Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) program while adding new operational requirements for participating schools.
CSI estimates the proposal’s income cap would immediately remove eligibility for approximately 20,300 current universal ESA families and could ultimately exclude more than half of Arizona families with school-aged children over time as household incomes rise faster than the proposal’s annual cap adjustment.
Key Findings
- Arizona’s K-12 enrollment trends predate universal ESA:
- District enrollment has been declining since 2008 while charter, private, homeschool, and other nontraditional education options expanded
- Arizona district schools lost approximately 50,000 students during 2021–2022, before universal ESA eligibility was enacted
- The proposal could significantly reduce ESA access over time:
- CSI estimates approximately 24% of current ESA users have household incomes above the proposed $150,000 threshold
- Approximately 400,000 Arizona school-aged children could be excluded from ever participating in universal ESA based on family income
- By 2045, CSI estimates more than 52% of Arizona families with school-aged children could become income-excluded as incomes outpace the cap adjustment
- ESA students generally receive less funding than public-school students:
- The average universal ESA award is approximately $7,700, compared to nearly $15,000 per public-school student
- CSI estimates moving 20,000 universal ESA students back into district classrooms would increase taxpayer costs by approximately $115 million annually
- The report finds that oversight mechanisms already exist within the ESA program:
- Arizona Department of Education audit data found approximately 1.9% of sampled ESA spending was classified as “unallowable,” while 0.3% was identified as “egregious.”
- CSI’s survey of participating private schools found 84% already use standardized academic testing, and roughly two-thirds report accreditation by a recognized accrediting body
“Arizona’s K-12 system has been evolving for more than a decade as enrollment patterns, family preferences, and educational models continue to diversify,” said Glenn Farley, Director of Policy & Research at Common Sense Institute. “This analysis finds the proposed Act would not simply adjust ESA eligibility requirements, but could significantly reshape access to nontraditional education options over time. More families are signaling that one size does not fit all and are seeking educational choices that better meet their children’s needs. Arizona was one of the first states to broadly expand Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, and a growing number of states have since adopted similar programs as demand for educational flexibility has increased. If approved by Arizona voters, the proposal could significantly narrow access to options many Arizona families have increasingly turned to as part of the state’s changing education landscape.” The report is the first release in CSI’s 2026 Ballot Guide series, which provides data-driven analysis of major statewide ballot proposals and their potential economic and fiscal impacts.
